半潜式支持平台靠泊海洋生产平台碰撞概率建模

为有效解决深水半潜式支持平台靠泊海洋生产平台过程中存在的碰撞问题,从碰撞事故发生原因入手,借鉴挪威船级社(Det Norske Veritas,DNV)DNV-RP-107规范中的船与海洋平台碰撞概率模型和美国公路与运输协会(American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials,AASHTO)《美国公路桥梁防船撞设计指南》中的船桥碰撞概率模型,将支持平台发生向前的过分偏移引起的碰撞场景分为漂移碰撞和动力碰撞2种,建立事件树,得到支持平台靠泊海洋生产平台碰撞概率模型。在此基础上,估算支持平台靠泊碰撞海洋生产平台的概率,由此评估碰撞风险,为半潜式支持平台靠泊碰撞海洋生产平台场景下的相关规范制定提供参考。     

Distribution of suspended sediment in the coastal sea off the Ganges–Brahmaputra River mouth: observation from TM data

Remote sensing technique was applied to estimate suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and to understand transportation, distribution and deposition of suspended sediment in the estuary and throughout the coastal sea, off the Ganges–Brahmaputra River mouth. During low river discharge period, zone of turbidity maximum is inferred in the estuary near the shore. SSC map shows that maximum SSC reaches 1050 mg/l in this period. Magnitude of SSC is mainly owing to resuspension of the bottom surface sediments induced by tidal currents flowing over shallow water depths. The influence of depth on resuspension is farther revealed from the distribution and magnitude of SSC along the head of Swatch of No Ground (SNG) submarine canyon. During high river discharge period, huge river outflow pushed the salt wedge and flashes away the suspended sediments in the coastal sea off the river mouth. Zone of turbidity maximum is inferred in the coastal water approximately within 5–10 m depth of water, where the maximum SSC reaches 1700 mg/l. In this period, huge fluvial input of the suspended sediments including the resuspended bottom sediments and the particles remaining in suspension for longer period of time since their initial entry control mainly the magnitude of SSC. In the estuary near the shore, seasonal variation in the magnitude of SSC is not evident. In the coastal sea (>5 m water depth), seasonal influence in the magnitude of SSC could be concluded from the discrepancy between SSC values of two different seasons. Transportation and deposition of suspended sediments also experiences seasonal variations. At present, suspended sediments are being accumulated on the shallow shelf (between 5 and 10 m water depth) in low discharge period and on the mid-shelf (between 10 and 75 m water depth) during high discharge period. An empirical (exponential) relationship was found between gradual settle down of suspended sediments in the coastal sea and its lateral distance from the turbidity maximum.     

水库淤积的一种不利形态

水库效益发挥程度与水库淤积形态密切相关。三角洲淤积在实际水库中比较普遍,研究相对较多。文章利用数学模型计算,发现水库在前期三角洲淤积基础上还可能出现一种新的淤积现象,称为二级三角洲形态。通过大量分析,论证了这种不利形态产生的可能性、影响因素以及危害性。二级三角洲虽只是数学模型意义上的淤积形态,但由于其主要侵占兴利库容,对水库防洪和调节性能影响极大。同时,二级三角洲可能会大量抬升变动回水区的水位,大大增加库尾的淹没损失,危害极为严重。实际水库调度运行中应高度重视并严加避免。     

基于粗集理论的交通控制系统研究

为满足智能交通系统高性能模糊控制器设计的需要,把粗集理论融入常规的模糊推理,提出了一种交通控制模糊建模新方法,利用粗集理论的知识推理,直接从交通系统的测量数据提取模糊规则,解决了城市交通模糊控制规则提取的瓶颈问题。实例分析表明:该方法简单有效,不仅可以最大限度地减少从交警的经验直接提取模糊规则的局限性,以获取最优的模糊模型,同时建模方法具有普遍适用性,提取的模糊规则更具客观性。该方法可以推广应用于多交叉口的模糊协调控制,对于采用复杂算法的控制系统更能显示出其优越性。     

基于Vague集与粗糙集的铁路安全信息提取方法

安全评价与隐患处理是铁路行车安全管理工作的重点。针对安全信息的多源、模糊特性,基于Vague集理论建立安全评价信息提取模型;为实现安全隐患信息数据库的知识提取,运用粗糙集方法提取安全隐患的特征规则,并对安全隐患信息数据库进行高效约简。算例表明,安全评价信息提取模型能够对行车安全状况进行合理评价,安全隐患信息提取方法能够高效提取隐患的特征规则。该方法可用于铁路行车安全评价与安全信息提取,为铁路行车安全管理工作提供决策支持。     

非洲高温干旱强蒸发地区抗渗混凝土施工技术

就高温、干旱、强蒸发环境对抗渗混凝土的影响进行了分析,从抗渗混凝土作用原理,高温、强蒸发对新拌混凝土性质的影响,对混凝土硬化性质的影响,外加剂的使用4个方面进行了论述;提出了采用缓凝、补偿收缩、温度控制等解决方法;进行了水箱抗渗混凝土配合比设计、混凝土浇筑、养护及施工缝处理等技术研究;解决了防止了水箱混凝土的微裂缝,满足抗渗要求的问题,达到了水箱不漏不渗的效果。     

Risk assessment framework for exposure of cargo and ports to natural hazards and climate extremes

There is an increase in risks and catastrophic losses in maritime transport including ports and cargo. Significant losses have been associated with large scale natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunami, cyclones, and other extreme weather events. This paper identifies the main gaps in understanding maritime risks in transportation research. The gaps are attributed to insufficient empirical work available from the maritime transport and logistics research community to guide multi-risk and natural hazards impact assessment on seaport and cargo. In addition, disaster studies communities have barely made adequate efforts to understand and assess port and cargo risks arising from multi-hazards and disaster events. This paper examines existing conceptual frameworks concerning exposure and risk assessments of natural catastrophe’s impacts. Furthermore, the paper identifies trends and gaps in risk assessment frameworks in the field of disaster studies that can be beneficial for maritime risk research. The authors propose a new risk assessment framework that can guide future research and multi-hazard risk assessment processes at different scales of maritime risks.     

淤泥质海岸波致液化及航道骤淤问题初步研究

研究波浪与淤泥海床相互作用导致的海床液化、体积冲刷和高浓度近底悬沙的层移输运问题。采用de Wit提出的液化判别条件及计算方法,结合连云港近岸波浪和淤泥力学特征,计算不同来波条件下淤泥质海床的液化深度;进一步考虑浑水中含沙量对流速的折减影响,计算液化层运移速度分布。计算结果表明,大浪条件下,淤泥质海床可能有较大的液化深度,但层移厚度不大。由于层移含沙量较高,在近底水流驱动下仍能形成较大的输沙率和一定规模的大风天航道骤淤。有关研究成果为海床稳定性分析和输沙计算提供了新的思路和方法。     

一种基于动态分析的突变和异常波动预警方法

针对模拟量的突变和异常波动预警,给出一种基于动态分析的、可以应用于各种模拟量的统一预警方法,该方法已被应用于CSM-TH型集中监测程序和智能分析系统中,在多条线700余站现场运行的7年中,收到良好效果,得到用户认可。     

The impact of muddy bottoms in ports

Ports are drivers of regional and of countries’ economic development. Most ports are built close to coastlines, where waters are shallower and tend to suffer from deposit sedimentation processes, which reduce depths in operational areas. In presence of shallow waters and sedimentation, ports must decide whether to dredge or not, where both decisions have significant impacts on ports’ annual incomes. Nevertheless, there are seabeds, namely muddy bottoms, in which vessels can navigate with a safety degree. This paper aims at investigating the extent to which the theoretical knowledge of vessel’s control in muddy waters is valid at a certain nautical bottom, as defined by the Permanent International Association of Navigation Congresses (since 2009 the World Association for Waterborne Transport Infrastructure but the acronym stays PIANC) and its impact on port economics. To achieve the proposed objective, an email survey was sent to worldwide pilots that manoeuvre ships in muddy waters. The survey validated the theoretical knowledge, showed that navigation in muddy waters is possible, that it can contribute to reduce ports’ operational costs, and that the subject can be rather controversial.